About Russian mobilization
Many smart, well-informed people wrote about Russian mobilization, but folks still ask me what this clusterfuck means and where it will lead. So here are my not so original 2c – how I see things today
First of all, this is not a partial mobilization. It’s as total as the Russian military can make it. Unlike the Soviet military, it’s not a mass mobilization army – that massive infrastructure is gone, and they are limited in how many people they can call up, process, equip, feed, move, and train. They’ll be mobilizing whom they need and can grab – and treating people like cannon fodder. This will delay the defeat but won’t prevent it.
Long-term, mobilization won't save Putin's regime. As explained by multiple military analysts, he lost this war on day 3 of the invasion. By then, his incompetent imitators of the Prague 1968 and Kabul 1979 operations failed to take Kyiv or remove Zelensky's government. It was over, but instead of cutting his losses and backing off, the Great Strategist doubled down. Ukrainians haven't folded, and there is no scenario anymore where Russia could win this war. Nukes won't change it. Even hypothetical Chinese or Iranian involvement won't save Putin, as 2 million Chinese "volunteers" saved Kim Il-sung during the Korean War.
Putin can't win. But he hasn't lost yet. And the Russian military will still kill and maim many people, Ukrainians and Russians, military and civilian.
Short-term, mobilization can help Russian commanders plug the holes with untrained cannon fodder and delay losing more occupied territory. This means more mass slaughter. And they can keep destroying Ukrainian infrastructure with stand-off missiles if they so choose. Ukrainians may have a few hard months ahead of them.
Today, the mobilization is as incompetent and messed up as the rest of this war. Russian state may be able to adapt - they'll fix the mobilization mess and organize some sort of training for called-up soldiers and officers. But Ukrainians have the advantage of morale and initiative. They will build up their military faster, will be getting better weapons, and will learn how to fight better and better. The time is on their side.
Politically, Putin was forced to do something he tried hard to avoid - piss off his support base by bringing the remote colonial war from their TVs to kitchens. This doesn't mean an imminent revolution or coup, but it ain't good for Comrade Putin.
The fact of mobilization means that Putin realized that no, he was not winning this fight. So there is a hope that he will sue for peace soon. But hope is not a strategy.
My understanding – the strategy is to
arm and train Ukrainians,
support its economy,
keep up economic pressure on Putin's Russia,
manage the European energy crisis,
maintain the unity of the West,
bring more countries of the Global South into the anti-Putin coalition,
support Ukrainian and Russian refugees…
... and wait for Putin or his successor to fold and sue for peace.
Meanwhile, Western and Ukrainian politicians need to start thinking about how to engage Russia after its defeat, longer term. I'm worried about the lack of a coherent "image of victory" and clarity on post-war settlement. The country of 140 million people, many of them brainwashed, with a huge land mass, 5,000 nukes, and deep problems in social psyche and culture won't disappear. How should Ukraine, Europe, and the US deal with it? Do we want it to disintegrate? To become a vassal of the PRC? Close off North Korea style and fester?
It would be a tragedy to win the war and lose peace, as victors of WWI lost 100 years ago in Europe, and the US recently in Iraq and Afghanistan. I'm interested in what you think, read, and write about this. Please share, in DM or comments.
P.S. I re-read my post about the war from half a year ago – there is nothing there that I changed my mind about. Couple of points I can add: Russian society is much sicker, and Russian propaganda is much more effective than I thought.
P.P.S. This is what I think. I'm trying to keep emotions out of these posts. But I'm sad and angry all right. Today, I came across Alfred Koch's post (in Russian) that resonated with how I feel.
#standwithukraine