About the war in Ukraine, Russia, and Russians
This is my March 13 post on Facebook and LinkedIn
People keep asking me what I know and think about the war in Ukraine and the situation in Russia. I already wrote what I think about the war – it's criminal madness. And it's a tragedy.
I can't see through the fog of war, so I won't be making any predictions. And there are better sources of information about the current situation in Ukraine and Russia. I do have an opinion on what's ahead for Russia and Russians. This is how I see things:
Russian invasion into Ukraine is criminal madness. Putin is destroying three countries – Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus. It’s a war he can't win – but lots of people are being killed.
Whether the "madness" of Putin & Co is clinical or moral & professional – I don't care, madmen have to be stopped.
I'm ashamed that Russian officers follow criminal orders.
I want the Russian Army to be defeated in Ukraine. The sooner this happens, the better for Ukrainians and Russians, civilians and soldiers.
I admire the Ukrainian spirit of unity and resistance.
I'm impressed with the Western reaction *after* the invasion started. Putin jolted us into action.
Today, the Russian Federation is a dictatorship. Putin's "vertical of power" is extremely dangerous – it has no controls and no breaks.
Domestically, it's a mafia state with an effective propaganda machine. Internationally, it's a petrostate with a weak and corrupt economy. It’s pushing beyond its weight militarily. It's a spoiler state, a troublemaker – unlike China, it benefits from instability.
A large part of the Russian population is brainwashed into supporting the rulers – and this war. Russian society is very sick – too many traumas and festering delusions. It’s a diagnosis, not an excuse.
Still, Russia ≠ Putin.
Many Russians (and Belorussians) are terrified by what is being done in their name. They also dread what's coming – economic collapse, iron curtain, repressions.
Expecting them to rebel and overthrow Putin's regime is naive and/or hypocritical – Putin's repressive machinery brutally stomps out any protest. Putin is not Gorbachev or Yanukovich – he miscalculated, is fighting for his survival, and willing to shed as much blood as is needed to stay in power. Political scientists say that such dictatorial regimes don't end with a popular uprising. Still, as of last week, over 15K Russian citizens were already arrested for anti-war protests.
The situation for Russian dissidents is terrible now – and it will get worse.
It is already immeasurably worse for the Ukrainians who are being bombed and starved – today. Helping them is the priority.
Blaming, isolating, and punishing Russian dissidents and refugees is unfair and counterproductive. We should support them for moral and practical reasons.
We are back to the Cold War situation when the US / West systematically supported dissidents in the USSR and Warsaw Pact countries and welcomed those few who managed to escape.
Today, we witness an exodus of Russians who oppose the regime. Its scale far exceeds the trickle from the USSR in the Cold War days – the estimate for the past two weeks is over 200 thousand. It's comparable to mass emigration from Russia after the Bolshevik takeover in 1917.
We should help Russian refugees for moral and practical reasons. Practical – because by leaving Russia, they deprive Putin's regime of their talent and labor – and bring it to the West. They are Putin's loss, our gain. And most of them are good people.
The only off-ramp scenario for Putin's Russia that I can think of is a palace coup. But that won't necessarily mean better rulers.
We need a miracle. Miracles happen... but it's not a strategy.
Therefore, I support projects that support Ukraine, Ukrainian refugees, and Russian refugees, including these:
UPD: Important point from the discussion in comments: This war will end with a political settlement, as a result of diplomacy. I hope it will be reached soon.